Trade in turbulent times: What are the prospects for trade as the global economy fragments?

Trade in turbulent times: What are the prospects for trade as the global economy fragments?

This Ditchley conference will assess the new shape of trade relations as multilateralism weakens and great power rivalry grows. Geopolitical competition is increasingly driving fragmentation in global trade, finance and investment, complicating supply chains and economic strategy for companies and countries alike. Growing tensions between the US and China and concern about trade imbalances have defined the foreign and economic policy of successive American administrations. But President Trump took this to a new level with his announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs for everyone on 2 April 2025. While some outline trade deals have been done, notably with the EU, the global trading system appears to be reconfiguring. This comes in the context of pre-existing trends in industrial policy, export restrictions, border adjustments, near-shoring, friend-shoring and sanctions driving fragmentation in global trade, finance and investment. The January conference will be the first in a series of three Ditchley conferences dedicated to exploring issues on global trade and finance which will shape the global economy for 2026 and beyond. It asks where trade is headed in the coming years. To what extent will the US stick to its guns on tariffs and re-industrialisation of the domestic economy? Can the US and China find a stable compromise? Will the US and EU trade deal hold? What strategies are developing amongst G7 countries and middle powers and what trading blocs might coalesce? Can reform at the WTO help hold together a common basis of rules and standards for trade? And how might all of this affect vital supply chains and technology needs?