Special Relationships in Uncertain Times: how can US allies best prepare for outcomes of US elections

Special Relationships in Uncertain Times: how can US allies best prepare for outcomes of US elections

This conference considered the implications of the upcoming US presidential election for the policies of its allies on several global challenges. Participants noted that there was likely to be remarkable continuity on many issues on a strategic level as underlying US political dynamics had not changed particularly in Congress. The tactics and preferences of the two candidates would likely be different, however. While mainstream analysis suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris would maintain continuity with President Joe Biden’s policies, participants noted that this was based on very little evidence. She has played her cards close to her chest on foreign policy in general, and differences in experiences and instincts between President Biden and Vice President Harris could lead to shifts in policy, most notably regarding Israel and Gaza. In contrast, former President Donald Trump was viewed as a more predictable figure, despite his unconventional style, with a consistent set of interests: China, Iran, a preoccupation with the idea that the US is being taken for a ride by its allies (particularly those in Europe), and a sense that he can get deals done with autocrats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Understanding that style and working with it would be important if he were to regain office.