Soft power as hard power: information operations, deterrence and democratic responses

Soft power as hard power: information operations, deterrence and democratic responses

In the current strategic environment, the distinction between soft and hard power is blurred. A state's ability to deter its adversaries, hold alliances together, absorb shocks and maintain social cohesion now leans heavily on the credibility of its information environment — and that environment has long been under attack. Hostile actors choose their targets and set the tempo, integrating narrative manipulation with sabotage, cyber attacks, military exercises and diplomatic pressure. Democracies, by contrast, divide their responses across departments, doctrines and legal regimes. Nor is there always a clear message to confront: campaigns often aim less to make publics believe a particular lie than to exhaust, confuse and disengage them.

Most conversations on this subject emphasise resilience — deterrence by denial. That matters, but it is only half of deterrence, and when it is easier to attack than to defend, a purely defensive posture can only take us so far. This Ditchley event will therefore concentrate on the harder half of the problem: how democracies can deter, disrupt and impose costs on hostile actors while remaining consistent with their own values and laws. Discussion will range across exposure and attribution, sanctions, expulsions, law enforcement, financial action and counter-influence, testing which of these change behaviour rather than merely satisfying the need to respond.

When is exposure more powerful than punishment? Which measures work against states, and which against proxies, funders and intermediaries? Where does legitimate response end and antidemocratic manipulation begin? Bringing together participants from our national security, media and wider democracy communities, the event will work towards a small number of practical steps to improve how democracies deter and respond.