Geopolitics and business: inevitably, the one about Trump

Geopolitics and business: inevitably, the one about Trump

The Trump Presidency has begun with a bang, with multiple simultaneous initiatives designed to remake the nation and the international stage. Whether this leads to renewal or chaotic volatility will play out in the years to come. One of President Trump’s primary aims is to attract yet more business investment in the US and to re-industrialise. This means many opportunities ahead for business but also political, economic and technological dilemmas. 

Should business put more of its resources in an American basket or continue to think globally for growth? How far should business embrace the freedom from regulation and responsibility for non-profit objectives (ESG and DEI) that the Trump Administration is offering? How far and fast will an accelerated drive to develop AI and blockchain effect the operations, efficiency and viability of business models and what will be the broader impact on business in society? 

Globally, business will have to navigate several economic zones with different advantages, expectations and regulations: a potentially unbound United States with cheap money and energy; a Europe in sharp tension with the US, still set on a model that aims to combine economic success with climate action and liberal social progress; the Global South, including Latin America, India and the Gulf states, which will follow a meandering path, switching between blocs as best suits their interests; and finally China which could mean a trade war but also potentially a grand deal with President Trump’s Administration. 

How can business best deal with the volatility of the years ahead and decide on long term plans, for example on supply chains and resilience where businesses which derisked China by moving to Mexico will have to think again? What will be the impact on how business defines purpose and success and on its relationship with the workforce?