After 1.5C: adaptation, security and resilience for a warmer world

After 1.5C: adaptation, security and resilience for a warmer world

The Paris Agreement targets are slipping out of reach. Slower-than-hoped-for mitigation means adaptation to a hotter, less stable climate is now unavoidable, while emissions cuts must accelerate to temper future extremes. Yet governments have barely begun to confront the scale of this task. As they wrestle with the consequences of a more hostile climate, so too must they wrestle with the realities of a more hostile world: war and other protracted armed conflict, intensifying major power rivalry, reduced emphasis on multilateralism, and an increased willingness by adversaries to exploit weaknesses in democratic societies, critical infrastructure and political life. In both security and climate domains, what were once thought of as risks to be managed are now issues to be confronted. These dynamics converge in various ways: climate change is reshaping geographies, amplifying risks and creating new flashpoints – from the melting Arctic to health and human displacement crises and fragility in food and energy supply chains. As governments pour greater resources into hard security, there is an opportunity to address resilience to climate challenges at the same time. This Ditchley Conference will explore how democracies and democratic alliances can integrate climate adaptation into their planning for national resilience, security and defence, while sustaining emissions reduction and long-term energy transition. What are the most immediate and pressing risks? Can investment in new capabilities and infrastructure help to address them by delivering resilience and security in both contexts? Can transatlantic cohesion be maintained, and where can states most productively act in concert? And how can all this be achieved with the informed support of democratic publics?