After 1.5C: Adaptation, security and resilience for a warmer world

After 1.5C: Adaptation, security and resilience for a warmer world

This Ditchley conference explored the implications of fast-evolving climate change for global security and how societies can build resilience amidst fraught geopolitical tensions and great power rivalry. With the world having surpassed the 1.5C average global warming threshold in 2024, discussions focused on navigating this unprecedented territory. Participants noted that "climate is the collateral of conflict," with leaders prioritising near-term military threats. The transatlantic alliance faces rifts, particularly over China's dominance in critical minerals and clean technology, where European and US approaches diverge. The conference highlighted that security could be a more effective framework for driving adaptation, suggesting "mutually assured resilience" as a focus for cooperation on infrastructure and defence. Investment in adaptation is hindered by a short-term profit economy, prompting calls for developments in legal duties, financial reporting standards, credit risk assessments, and valuing avoided losses. Finally, political acceptability for resilience measures is often local, with health and public wellbeing being considered a safer focus than defence in some contexts, such as the UK.